The Finickies: a horse racing theory

The last few months has been filled with work as my boss allowed me to work the mutual line. Now I also process bets. I felt better regarding my books. A deaconess fieldworker at my church now has the books for her own theological library. I just ordered more DRF books and in the meantime prepping for the Kentucky Derby in less than three weeks.

During certain times of the week, usually Saturday or Sunday, I would be the most successful with Aqueduct and Tampa Bay Downs. It was when I stumbled across this factor.

I noticed that in a given circuit, most horses would favor one racetrack over others. The dirt ground of one track is different in composition. For example, a horse would be in the money constantly at Gulfstream Park West (formerly Calder), but once he ships to Gulfstream or Tampa Bay, he would perform abysmally. And if you read Steve Haskin’s Derby Dozen for this week, read the McCraken part. He noticed that horses that did very good at Keeneland won’t do well at Churchill Downs. Check out last year’s Ashland Stakes and the Kentucky Oaks. For the lack of a better term, these horses I describe have “the finickies”.

Spotting the finickies has helped me be in the money. I remember noticing one horse at Aqueduct, her name is Roman Ceres. She was a 15-1 shot and at post was around 30-1. In her past performances, I saw that she did not did well at Belmont or Saratoga, but did very well at Aqueduct’s inner track. Add a jockey that works with her very well, and you got a massive overlay. Man, my voice was hoarse when she won by a head. I also saw that at a Tampa Bay Downs stakes, in which Muggsamatic was 5-1 in the morning line but was 30-1. I checked if he had the finickies. Oh yes he did, and oh look! A good jockey that worked well with him. Let’s say I have been the recipient of many high-fives.

Later on, I will edit and add material to fatten up this post. See if this may be of help to you. My advice is free, so it’s either priceless or worthless.