The Clue in the KD Future Pool 2

(Nota Bene: This post will update for Pool 2 info this week.)

Humans are very hung up on patterns. We tend to organise things into something that make sense to us. Autistic people are especially are aware of patterns. I am no different.

The need to make patterns out of data spills over into the Kentucky Derby and other races. Horseplayers are really itchin’ for an early clue that signal an upcoming Derby winner. In fact, one website was promoting a booklet on spotting the next Derby winner before anyone else does. Somehow, some guy would be like “lol, so going to win obsceeeeeene loads of cash!”

In between lulls, I would visit the horse racing news websites and catch up on the news. Our work is preparing for the second Kentucky Derby Future Pool this weekend. So, I figure…maybe the upcoming pool might hold a clue as to who will appear and who will win the Derby.

So I compared past Pool 2 records of the last 6 years and compared them to the final roster of the Kentucky Derby field for each year. There were 138 horses named in these future pools, not counting the six “All Others” entries. Of the 138 horses named as Pool 2 entries, 49 of these horses later went on to run the Derby. So 35.5 percent of these Pool 2 horses became Derby horses.

The second thing I noticed that 5 out the last 6 Future Pool 2 lists contain the winner of each year’s Kentucky Derby:

In 2012, I’ll Have Another appeared in Pool 2.
In 2013, Orb appeared in Pool 2.
In 2014, California Chrome appeared in Pool 2.
In 2015, American Pharoah appeared in Pool 2.
In 2016, Nyquist appeared in Pool 2.
In 2017, Always Dreaming DID NOT appear in Pool 2. He fell into the “All Others” category.

Now the “Lutheran Question”: What Does It Mean? My interpretation is that I have a decent chance in spotting a Derby horse from Pool 2. The challenge is which horse has a sporting chance (ha!). This is where more useful data is much welcomed.

Pool 2 horses:

1) may win in the Florida Derby. (Nyquist, Orb) Always Dreaming did win that race, but he was “All Others”. Maybe we’ll see a Pool 2 horse win that this year.
2) may be in the money at Arkansas Derby.
a) By the way, horses participating in Arkansas Derby races are likely also to be in the money at Triple Crown races (Classic Empire 2nd at Preakness, Creator won the Belmont, American Pharoah won TC)
3) may win the Santa Anita Derby. (Gormley, Exaggerator, Dortmund, California Chrome, Goldencents, I’ll Have Another) Use that data for that race.

I am still staring at the KD records. O’Neill won twice in the past years. Gutierrez and Espinoza were the jockeys for four of the five winners that appeared in Pool 2.

As soon I have this year’s pool, I will post them up and see where the chips will fall.